Outlook 2024: Key Takeaways for the Year Ahead

On the first Friday of the new year, hundreds of business and community leaders, nonprofit representatives, and others from across the region flocked to the Spartanburg Marriott for a look at the year ahead.

Outlook Spartanburg, featuring legislative, economic, hospitality, and community forecasts at the local, regional, and national level, drew potentially its strongest crowd ever for looks at the future of Downtown Spartanburg, our economic outlook, and much more.

Economic Outlook with Tim Quinlan

Wells Fargo Economist Tim Quinlan kicked off the session by issuing a “mea culpa” for a recession that didn’t come as many economists and pundits had predicted.

“It’s better than the other way around,” he said.

“This is a business-casual recession, if anything,” Quinlan added later.

Inflation has pivoted from high-and-rising to high-and-falling, Quinlan said, despite prices staying a little higher than normal. But ultimately, consumer spending kept strong in the face of economic data.

Additionally, the national economy added another 216,000 jobs in December, an indicator of strong conditions.

Quinlan said over the last three decades or so, income typically coincides with spending level.

“But in the last couple of years, spending and income has totally broken off,” he said.

The labor force participation rate is the highest it has been in 15 years. “The job market is frankly doing better than I thought,” Quinlan said.

Additionally, the quit-rate has dropped, and employers are, anecdotally, holding onto talent longer to avoid the headaches and costs of the hiring process, Quinlan said. That trend especially rung true for manufacturing and other tech-heavy industries.

“Over the next 5-10 years, we are sitting at the outset of an advanced manufacturing boom in the U.S.,” he said. “Since COVID, manufacturing and warehouse construction has seen the largest booms. It’s an underappreciated positive on the horizon.”

Statewide, the outlook is bright as South Carolina is more than 100,000 jobs over the pre-COVID employment peak.

And while manufacturing is contracting slightly statewide, it’s not in Spartanburg County.

INFRASTRUCTURE AND QUALITY OF PLACE: BUILDING SPARTANBURG 2.0

One of the first breakout sessions of the day was standing-room-only to dive into the infrastructure and quality of place investments driving the county into the future.

Cole Alverson, Spartanburg County Administrator, led off the panel discussion with an update on the roads projects to be completed thanks to voters passing the penny sales tax in November 2023.

The county is ready to hit the ground running, even before the first collection of the penny tax comes in May, thanks to well-allocated funding.

“We, with Council support, have some advanced funding,” he said.

Joel Lunsford with Duke Energy, a key economic development partner in Spartanburg County, dug into some of the utility work being done to keep up with new development.

He said a new substation would likely be built to accommodate additional demanded countywide.

“My goal is, let’s say in 3-5 years, is for the electrical grid in Spartanburg to be something similar to Greenville or Charlotte.”

City of Woodruff Manager Lee Baily said between BMW’s $700-million Plant Woodruff, where electric-vehicle batteries will be assembled, and growth in housing and local investment, had Woodruff coming off arguably its biggest year ever.

We’re in a very unique position in our history,” he said. “We’re guiding, creating, and sculpting what our future will become.”

Spartanburg Deputy City Manager Mitch Kennedy said the host of construction projects set to kick off soon in Downtown Spartanburg will create some disruptions, so he encouraged the crowd to find and get used to using the city’s free parking garages and street spaces.

Improvements plants along West Main Street are set to pick up steam in 2024, as is the redesign of Morgan Square, which will add greenspace, restrooms, shaded and seating areas, and more to the pedestrianized area.

“We’re not just at the table, but we’re setting the table,” Kennedy said. “What we’re doing here is quite special.”

Like Duke Energy, Spartanburg Water CEO Guy Boyle said the utility is working tirelessly to keep water and sewer service strong, with an incredible amount of investment in Spartanburg that should leave the county in good shape for “50 or 60 years.”

PAL Executive Director Laura Ringo then provided an update on trail progress countywide. The Dan, Spartanburg’s 55+-mile trail system, is under construction with segments coming together, and work on the Saluda Grade Rail Trail is getting closer by the day.

“The Dan is one of the most-supported projects ever in our area,” she said.

SMALL BUSINESS OUTLOOK WITH ALLEN THOMAS

This small business-focused session started with a deep dive into Power Up Spartanburg.

In March 2023, Power Up Spartanburg, funded by Spartanburg County Council and powered by OneSpartanburg, Inc., was launched. The county’s small and minority business development strategy was conceived to combat data showing Spartanburg lagged behind the U.S. average in the number of small businesses overall, and Black-owned, nonemployee businesses in particular.

With a busy 2024 on the horizon for the initiative, Jay Jenkins, OneSpartanburg, Inc. Director of Small and Minority Business Development, said it could be a transformative year for small business.

“I like to say we’re really building an ecosystem here,” he said.

Allen Thomas, U.S. Small Business Administration Regional Director, discussed much of the SBA’s responsibilities and successes, noting increases in lending opportunities for small businesses and additional programs available at the regional and national levels.

Thomas also said programs like Power Up Spartanburg, in conjunction with federal support across the country, create an “ecosystem of opportunity.”

“I love the attitude of, ‘let’s add more pieces to that OneSpartanburg puzzle,’” he said. “The barriers are melting away here.”

DOWNTOWN DEVELOPMENT UPDATE

Tyson Jeffers, GM of Spartanburg’s future downtown baseball team, kicked the keynote session off by updating the timeline on the team and the stadium construction.

“We’ll make sure everything down to the food level meets expectations,” he said.

Fifth Third Park and the team will offer more than just baseball with strategic partnerships for programming plans throughout the year.

“The #1 question I get is ‘when can I get tickets?’,” Jeffers said.

He answered the team is looking to establish a waitlist by January, with season tickets hopefully available by October or November, and single-game tickets available starting in January 2025 ahead of the team’s first game in spring 2025.

From there, Spartanburg City Manager Chris Story and OneSpartanburg, Inc. Chief Economic Development Officer Katherine O’Neill led a look at the long list of projects downtown.

“We are very excited to move forward with by far the most significant project in downtown history,” Story said.

Several projects will begin construction on Broad and East Main streets in the coming years, and “things near Main and Broad won’t look anything like they do now in 2-3 years, O’Neill said.

Story provided an update on government facilities, funded by the penny sales tax approved by voters in 2017. The penny funded a new Spartanburg County Courthouse, Emergency Operations Center, Spartanburg Police HQ, and will fund a joint City-County Municipal Complex.

The city planned to move from City Hall, where the joint government facility will be constructed, in early January. And the Spartanburg County Courthouse was set to open to the public on Jan. 22.

“There’s incredible activity in the heart of our city, and we’re really excited for that, and for our business community,” Story said.

O’Neill said movement could start soon on the Babb/Bauknight project at 111 E. Main, which recently increased the residential space it will offer to 28 units instead of 25, along with restaurant and retail space.

Morgan Square, “Spartanburg’s living room,” Story said, will be transformed to a pedestrian-friendly space with more outdoor seating, green space, and programming options throughout the year.

“East Main is going to be a pretty busy place soon,” O’Neill added, when discussing the M Peters Group project set to transform the area just past FR8yard on East Main Street.